Churchill Visionary Statesman , Historian by John Lukacs 2002 201pg

  Churchill's writing tellד us a lot about him. 14/2/23

Very few understood how close Hitler had come to winning the war before summer of 1940 well before the Battle of Britain but as long as Churchill was in power Hitler could not win. Democracy is more vindictive than cabinets, and wars of people will be more terrible than those of kings. Churchill understood Hitler more than Hitler understood Churchill and this was a great asset. Churchill understanding can be considered a visionary. "Fear will not a clear vison make."  

In 1930 Churchill warned about the danger of Hitler when nobody in both England and Germany  though that Hitler could become Chancellor. He understood that Hitler with National Socialism could unite Germany leaving a  Dark Age  protracted by perverse science. Churchill also understood that Russia's help was needed to beat Germany. "If Hitler invaded hell I would make a favorable reference to the Devil"

When De Gaul complained how much territory in Eastern Europe Russia got. Churchill said that Russia will not be able to digest what she has swallowed  and that Communism would only last 3 score and 10 years., which is what happened.  By 1900 Pax Britannia was already being replaced by Pax Anglo American but his vision of the closer union of the English speaking world was snot to be.

Stalin

The historian unlike a judge is permitted t try a case over and over often after finding newer evidence.. By Chamberlain abandoning Czechoslovakia to Germany it was also abandoning Poland to Russia. Stalin preferred to cut a deal with Germany than with the western Democracies.  Churchill realized that Russia's national interests were more important than their International Communism.   Churchill saw a lot  of Ivan Maisky the Soviet ambassador to London  but he told Churchill thing that he wanted to hear. Stalin was suspicious of the indirect and direct  warnings of Hitler invasion April to June 1941.

Stalin showed his ignorance by asking Britain to invade western Europe and to send British division to Russia through Archangel and Persia. Britain and Russia in days made an agreement and jointly subdued Persia.

1941 Dec after Pearl Harbour, Churchill now knew that both Japan and Hitler were doomed.

Churchill told Stalin there would not be a Western Invasion in 1942 and managed to dissuade Roosevelt and Marshall from invading Europe. After Stalingrad, Stalin still had to understand that a second front in Europe would not occur in 1943. A 100,000 Polish soldiers made their way to Britain. Churchill also realized that through Poland Germany would march on Russia and later Russia would march on Germany.

Churchill wanted to give the Curzon line but to ensure Poland's independence.  Greece was worrying where a partisan Communist's army was growing every day, the percentages program saved Greece.

Churchill realized that geography and territory mattered and not ideology. At Yalta, Poland was the principle subject discussed.  Allan Dulles was secretly negotiating with a German General to surrender German cities to American and draw a wedge to put a wedge between the American and Russians. Churchill instructed Montgomery to collect the weapons in Germany ready for a confrontation with Russia. Churchill wanted to meet the Russians well east of the agreed line, so that returning to that line would be contingent on concession  Russia over  Poland.

Truman saw eye to eye with Churchill and stood up to Stalin

1946 Churchill Fulton speech about the Iron Curtain. Both Truman and Dean Acheson disavowed this speech but it was soon apparent Churchill was right.

1944 Churchill did manage to save Greece.

Roosevelt 

There are 3 volumes of correspondence  between them. 1161 from Churchill and 788 from Roosevelt both letters and telegrams.  Once the war began Chamberlain was forced to invite Churchill into the war cabinet and a few days later the correspondence with Roosevelt began. Churchill knew that American would have to come into the war and it was agreed that it would conquer first Europe and then Japan.

With Churchill as PM all talk of armistice with Hitler ceased. By Nov.1940 the Battle of Britain in the air was over.  The German economy would accomplish miracles despite the bombing. Hitler's pretext of attacking the Soviets on account of Communism saved Britain.

Churchill persuaded the American that an invasion of Europe would be a disaster and persuaded them to attack North Africa, then Italy from Sicily. Churchill was right about Hitler and about Stalin and the Soviets, some of Roosevelts opponents thought Communism was the greater danger.

The British had relinquished the Victorian Empire  ideal by 1939, Churchill not quite. Churchill knew that if someone like Hoover had sat in the White House, Germany would have won.?

Eisenhower

1945 March Eisenhower told Stalin that Allied armies rushing forward in Germany  would not take Berlin or Prague

1948 Eisenhower was suggested for the Democratic nomination but 4 years later he declared himself a Republican church goer. Churchill was pleased to see he pal elected but was to be disappointed. In the book Triumph and Tradgedy he as curtesy left out the controversy he and Ike had.

1953 March,  Eisenhower  inaugurated  and Stalin died 6 weeks later, but thought it made very little difference now Stalin gone. All foreign policy in the White house was influenced and guided by John Forster Dulles. Churchill wanted to have a meeting in Moscow between him Ike and the new Soviet leader. Ike refused referring to Churchill as senile. In the US there was a rising wave of Mc McCarthyism.

1955 Russia withdrew from Austria in exchange of Western troops reciprocating and the neutrality of Austria. Russia also gave up their naval bases in Finland for neutrality there. To Churchill the ideology of communism was becoming feeble and would not last. Russia recognized the West German government without demanded western recognition of East Germany. After the first uprising in East Germany Russia and China split. Ike was weak and abrogated power to John Forster Dulles. Churchill attempts to contact Moscow were opposed by Edan and Salisbury as well as Ardanauer the Chancellor of West Germany. Interesting but of Ike and Churchill, Ike was the ideologue while Churchill vision was not wrong. Churchill view of the world was historical.

Europe 

Immediately after WW1 Churchill spoke  up against mistreating the Germans as he did again after WW2.

1932 and 1933 at the disarmaments conferences the German demands were ratcheted up higher and Churchill knew that meant that Germany was rearming. The presents of a new Germany was a welcome thing a bulwark against communism  by people like Lord Rothemere who met Hitler.

Appeasement was first used by Antony Eden who later became an anti- appeaser. While Chamberlain was engaged in appeasement he was also rearming. However Chamberlain was Russophobic , Francophobic and anti communist, but knew very little about Europe and Britain's ties to her.

Historian

Churchill was a writer and historian. He was the Nobel Prize for literature in 1953 only one other historian won a Nobel prices for literature and that was  the Great German historian Theodor Mommsen in 1902. Churchill did not treat history as a science.

He wrote about the Indian and Sudan Wars , a political history of his father Lord Randolph, a biography of his ancestor Marlborough , WW1 and WW2 and the History of the English speaking peoples.

In WW1 he tried to justify his decision to attack the Dardanelles. On WW2 he said that had the French mobilized in 1936 Hitler's General Staff would have withdrawn. 

History permeated everything that Churchill did was the mainspring of his politics and secret   of his immense mastery . He was influenced by Gibbons and Macaulay.  His book on Marlborough shows his detailed knowledge of Europe and it Geography and history and he had access to all the papers at Blenheim Palace (Marlborough's home) of his cousin there. Churchill always had a big readership and was a popular writer.