Sunday, March 22, 2020

Putin’s and the Rise of Russia by Michael Stuermer 2008 228pp

  Putin and his Russia 16/3/17

Putin was born in Leningrad in 1952.
1999 Secretary of Security, 2000 appointed Premier and the President.
2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine
2008 Medvedev become President.
Russia has a population of 140 million of them 20 million are Muslims.
Churchill 1940 " I cannot forecast to you the actions of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped  in a mystery , inside an enigma- The key is the national interests of Russia.
In 2007 Putin stated that while the Russian were in turmoil the West took advantage, taking over Eastern Europe and NATO moved in.  Russia gave support to the west on 9/11.  Russia was always the protector of the Serbs against the Moslems.  Putin did not like the missiles in Chzeck Republic and Poland but encouraged missiles in Azerbaijan as the same missiles that could threaten Israel could hit Russia. Russia considers herself European and would prefer the US as a partner to the growing threat of mainland China. Russia is traumatized by 10 years’ war in Afghanistan and jihadist from Chechnya.
Putin after university joined the KGB and was able to travel abroad. He was in Dresden in 1985 and saw the East German state crumbling and knew the same forces that tore the Warsaw Pact apart would affect the Soviets.
East Germany "We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us"
 In 1982 East Germany asked and received a billion Deutschmark loan.
Between 1992 and 1994 the Russian currency lost a third of its value. The public wanted democratization and reform but were not ready for the transitional hardship.
In 1997 the Russian coffers were empty and the price of oil fell very low. You had the Serbian crises with NATO getting involved and the problems of northern Caucuses. Luckily the price of oil recovered in 1999 saving Russia. Chechen Rebels wanted to make an Islamic State there and with all these crises Putin was needed as a savior.
In 2000 at a think tank in Germany, Putin spoke of the 20 million Russians on the wrong side of the borders in Ukraine and this is a causes belli. Russia’s strength is in gas and oil but that  it's a weakness also.  For Putin democratization is destabilization.  Most men  in Russia die in their mid-50s of alcoholism or work accidents from alcoholism.
Putin’s PhD is in Russia’s oil security. The Tsarist symbols have returned as well as uniforms of the Presidential guards and Putin considers the communist period as wasted years.
In 1982 in the Lebanon War, Israel shot down over 70 Russian Migs,
In 1985 with the Iran Iraq war, America persuaded Saudi to open the oil flow and once oil was cheap Iran had to sue for peace as she could not finance the war.
Every chapter starts with an epigraph taken from the Marquis de Custine's classic travelogue. “Russia is where you can do the greatest things with the most insignificant results.
In 2000 when the Kursk submarine exploded the admirals tried to hide the truth from the Kremlin, then the families, then the public or the world. Russia today has to reduce her army from a mass conscription one to a high tech one and its biggest enemy is terrorism.  If the Orthodox church gets an official position then Islam will also revive itself.
Gazprom get 60% of its revenue from Europe, 30% from the CIS 10% it also has shares in the pipelines between Belgium and Britain and Netherlands. It is a secretive company and as a monopoly is risky for foreign companies.  Western companies bought oil fields in Siberia at a time when the Soviets were weak. Now the Kremlin pushed them out . Gas is in big demand as it is clean energy. Gazprom is building a pipeline to China and India.
Gazprom operated Zenit St Petersburg football club.  It controls newspapers, TV and even internet.  After the Orange Revolution in Ukraine they put the price up of gas and got Europe worried not only for Ukraine but European gas security.  Energy could be used as an instrument to punish unwilling neighbours, or discounts for co-operation. Energy is a political tool. Gazprom and Rosneft have to be state monopolies as energy prices fluctuate.  A cartel has been formed with Algeria and Katar perhaps Iran also.
The Stalinism period is not discussed publicly yet, by neither the victims nor the perpetrators only privately.
In a country where the treasury is filled by oil revenues and not much by taxpayers democracy can’t work.  Russian businessmen try investing abroad as they don't feel secure with what Putin’s government might extort from them.
The 3 day war against Georgia has shown that NATO and the EU will have to keep their distance and Putin has drawn a red line.  The gas pipeline through Georgia won't be built and Putin can deal with Europe each country separately. The EU's economic clout does not translate into political power.

1 comment:

  1. Putin will no doubt be Russia's leader for many yars to come untillhe is replaced - i do not belive by the ballot box

    ReplyDelete

A History of Modern Britain by Andrew Marr 2008 602 pgs.

   16/4/24 This book is a social History of Britain from the end of the WW2 till the book was written. .  I only made notes on the period en...